Aircraft makers offer different forecasts on cargo growth

Date Added: 20 July 2022

Aircraft makers offer different forecasts on cargo growth

We have a strong presence in the expedited airfreight arena through our subsidiary, Davies Turner Air Cargo (DTAC), and note that in its latest Market Outlook spanning the next two decades, Boeing forecasts a faster growth of the cargo business compared to the passenger business, which conflicts from an Airbus analysis in which air freight is predicted to advance at a significantly slower pace over the next 20 years.

Boeing says it expects cargo tonnage to increase by 4.1% (RTK) up until 2041, which is music to the ears of most cargo players, further boosting their self-confidence. Concerning the long-term freighter fleet development, the aircraft producer expects 3,610 commercial all cargo aircraft to be operational by 2041, versus 2,010 in 2019.

Of these, 515 will be newly built large widebody freighters, 555 widebody conversions, 425 new medium widebodies, and 1,300 standard-body conversions such as the Boeing B737 or Airbus A320/21. However, Russian-produced freighters have been left out of Boeing’s survey, while Airbus has integrated them in their European market figures.

An interesting part of Boeing’s prognosis is that it sees India will be the new powerhouse, in both passenger and cargo traffic, and India remains a strong market for DTAC.

Airbus, supported by analyst Seabury, predicts an annual cargo growth of 3.2% until 2041, with express outgrowing standard freight.

As the UK’s highest placed independent freight forwarder in the IATA/CASS league table for 2020, measured by CASS airline tonnage, Davies Turner Air Cargo welcomes enquiries about our global airfreight services. Just contact aircargo@daviesturner.co.uk or visit https://www.daviesturner.com/air-freight
 

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