Drewry says shipping faces dual uncertainty on Suez Canal transits and tariffs

Drewry says shipping faces dual uncertainty on Suez Canal transits and tariffs

A new survey from maritime research consultancy Drewry reveals significant uncertainty in the container shipping market, driven by the potential restart of Suez Canal  transits and anticipated escalation of U.S. tariffs under a second Trump administration.

With our portfolio of international container shipping services, this made interesting reading for Davies Turner.

The survey of over 300 shipping stakeholders, predominantly shippers (34%), forwarders (13.7%), and port authorities/terminal operators (10%), indicates widespread expectation of a Suez Canal transit resumption before the close of 2025, coupled with concerns over rising U.S. tariffs.

Osama Rabie, Chair of the Suez Canal Authority, remains optimistic about a swift recovery. "Traffic could start to ramp up by late March and be fully recovered
by mid-year, so long as the Gaza ceasefire holds up," Rabie told journalists.

The Drewry survey reflects this sentiment, with 54 percent of respondents expecting Suez transits to resume before the end of 2025, and a further 29 percent predicting a resolution during 2026. However, 2% believe the disruption will persist beyond 2030.

The survey indicates a strong belief among respondents that tariffs will rise, with the most common prediction (32 percent) placing the U.S. effective tariff rate between 5-10 percent by the end of 2025, a significant jump from 2.4 percent in September 2024.

A notable 13 percent of respondents anticipate even higher rates, exceeding 20 percent, levels unseen since the Great Depression. China (85 percent), Mexico (76 percent), Canada (73 percent), and the European Union (60 percent) are seen as the most likely targets for these tariffs. Even nations like India (16 percent) and Vietnam (14 percent), often considered alternatives for relocated shipments, are perceived to be at risk.

For more information about Davies Turner’s ocean freight forwarding and logistics services, please contact ocean@daviesturner.co.uk or visit the relevant pages of this website.