Could containership overcapacity last to 2030 or beyond?

Date Added: 31 October 2023

Could containership overcapacity last to 2030 or beyond?

With our comprehensive portfolio of international container shipping services, Davies Turner notes that new analysis from Sea-Intelligence forecasts that container shipping segment could be beginning a much longer and more challenging period.

Recently, the Danish analytics firm issued a forecast highlighting that the container segment’s current level of overcapacity could take a minimum of four years to come into balance and could be pushed out to 2030 or beyond.

Sea-Intelligence suggested that the market is heading into a traditional down cycle, as 2023 is seeing significant excess capacity being delivered, with the same most-likely happening in 2024.

In the industry some have been predicting that the worst of the collapse in rates would be overcome by late this year but looming is the question of capacity. More people are now forecasting that the industry will be forced to turn to more aggressive disposals as slow steaming and even idling tonnage alone with not achieve balance versus the onslaught of capacity due to arrive in the next three years into the sector.

Alphaliner, another maritime consultancy, calculates that even after the large-scale deliveries already completed this year, the tidal wave of capacity growth is yet to come. Its data shows the orderbook for the top carriers still stands at approximately seven million teu, representing a further 25 percent gross increase in capacity before potential dispositions for scrap.

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